The Amazon Effect: Real Estate Reality or Hype?

Amazon. It has impacted our daily lives — from how we shop to what we watch — for years…but now it may have a greater impact for residents of two east coast communities: Arlington, Virginia and Long Island City, New York.

2000px-Amazon_logo_plain.svg.png

The selection process for Amazon’s HQ2 has been in the works for a while, so speculation about how it may impact the communities who were bidding for its business has been going on just as long. With the official announcement this morning that Amazon has selected two sites (and also will be bringing jobs to Nashville), the volume has been cranked up to 11.

 Aerial View of Crystal City Circa 1980

Aerial View of Crystal City Circa 1980

From a residential real estate perspective, it is something that homeowners, potential buyers and sellers, investors and renters all should pay attention to (as if you could avoid it). What it is not is something that in and of itself is the reason to make an investment or decision to buy/sell. We will learn more details in the coming hours, weeks and months about the composition of jobs, timeline for hiring, etc. but here are some initial thoughts::

  • Not All Hires Will Be Moving Here: Part of what Amazon was looking for was communities with the right type of talent for their needs, so this doesn’t mean 25,000 new residents for the Washington, DC region necessarily. You will likely see talent pulled from other organizations (for example, Discovery Inc., which has made recent changes to how many employees it has in the area). The net impact remains to be seen, but the DC area is dynamic so, while significant, it’s not as big a percentage change as it could be for a smaller market.

  • Greater Buying Power: With attractive salaries, Amazon will likely bring on new talent who will see a salary bump, which means they may be more likely to make a real estate purchase — whether a first home, a larger home and/or an investment property. Higher salaries and attractive benefits also likely will put pressure on competing employers to match them to retain or recruit talent.

  • More Regional Moves: Current homeowners and renters who are hired by Amazon very well may decide to move to improve their commutes (as is common in an area known for commuter headaches). Expect to see greater interest in properties closest to Metro stations, especially on the Yellow and Blue lines. The region’s traffic woes are not going away anytime soon, so this will contribute to the trend of people seeking walkable communities with easy access to public transportation.

  • Rise in Renters: It is no secret that there has been a shortage of housing inventory for sale in the DC area for quite some time; meanwhile, the rental market has been less competitive. For those relocating to DC, they may choose to rent first and will be looking for nearby, updated options or those that provide a swift commute.

  • Catalyst for Change: The arrival of Amazon isn’t reason alone to buy, sell or invest but it is an important factor to consider — along with increasing interest rates, low inventory, etc. — when deciding what you best next move is.

So, what does this mean for YOU? The short answer is, it depends. If you have been dipping your toe in as a buyer, now may be the time to make that move before competition is likely to increase for the most desirable properties (as it normally does in spring but likely to a greater extent). If you are a homeowner looking to move up, you might want consider finding that new home sooner rather than later and evaluating whether listing or renting out your current home (for both the near- and long-term) is the best financial decision for you. And, if you are an investor or have been thinking about investing, there may be some good opportunities that come of this…but you’ll want to act swiftly (as many have already made their bets/investments).

There is no one answer for everyone and, no matter your feelings about the arrival of Amazon and its potential positive and negative impacts on housing affordability, traffic and more, it is a prime example of the complex dynamics you need to consider when making a real estate decision.

Is there a lot of hype? Absolutely.

Are all the accounts of potential impact exaggerated? No.

But, does hype have an impact on supply, demand and how people will act? Yes. Even if it’s more than it should have, it can work for and against you if you don’t think clearly.

Feel free to share your thoughts below and reach out if you’d like to talk about the potential impact on your 2019 (and remainder of 2018) real estate plans!

Amber Harris is the owner of At Home DC and a licensed real estate agent with Keller Williams Capital Properties working with clients in DC, Maryland and Virginia.