Fall

Fall Market Update: What's In Store for Sellers & Buyers?

Fall in Rock Creek.jpg

If you’ve worked with a real estate agent to buy or sell a home, you know we are the first to let you know that we are many things but there are some things we are not — lawyers, accountants, tax advisors, inspectors, etc. You also can add psychic to that, meaning we cannot predict what your home will sell for in three years or what interest rates will rise to. That being said, we are in the field every day and are in a better position than most to spot signs of change in the market that could impact your strategy or decision making.

To that end, I wanted to share some statistics that provide food for thought and observations from my experiences and conversations with fellow Realtors® as we head into the fall market. Knowing when is the right time to buy or sell, while it certainly can be impacted by market dynamics, is really mostly about your personal situation. Have you outgrown your current home or are you moving out of the region? Do you have a new job and need a shorter commute? Is what you spend on rent more than what you would spend to buy a comparable or larger home? And those are just a few.

But back to some recent observations:

Housing inventory continues to be tight. When talking about the supply of housing, we look at the months of supply (i.e., if no other properties come on the market, how many months will it be until there are no homes left — assuming the same absorption rate as today). In August 2018 in Washington, DC, there was only 1.76 months of supply (Source: MRIS), which was actually up 9.5% versus last year. To put things in perspective, six months of supply is considered a balanced market. In Arlington, VA, that number increases to a whopping 1.87 (but that’s down nearly 17% from the same time last year). If we look toward Montgomery County, that number jumps to 2.96 in Bethesda but is the lowest of the four cities at 1.74 for Silver Spring. Of course, these numbers vary depending on the specific neighborhood and the housing type (see above) and size (e.g., for townhouses in DC, there is only 1.37 months of supply).

Interest rates are gradually rising. Interest rates have been slowly but surely increasing. In August 2018, the average commitment rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was 4.55% (Source: Freddie Mac). In August 2017, that number was 3.88% with a 2017 average of 3.99%. By contrast, that annual average was as high as 8.05% in 2000. Overall, interest rates are still competitive (nowhere near the 18% rates seen in the fall of 1981) but locking in a rate now can save you meaningful money on your monthly payment and over the life of your mortgage (or until you refinance). It’s important to note that just because the Fed increases interest rates by 0.25%, for example, that doesn’t mean mortgage rates will go up a quarter point (however they usually trend in the same direction).

Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates (Source: Freddie Mac)

Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates (Source: Freddie Mac)

It’s still competitive out there…but not as much as before. It was only earlier this year that we were hearing stories of 15+ offers coming in on area properties. Of late, however, there are still many multiple offer situations and short offer deadlines but to lesser extremes. Many agents attribute this to buyer fatigue (yes, it’s wearing on you to make offer upon offer only to lose out…again). While a buyer last year that heard there was a deadline and multiple offers in hand may have put on their battle gear, some buyers now are talking themselves out of the running and not writing.

Pricing matters more than ever. Pricing is always the most important consideration when taking any property to market. Many sellers (and some agents) mistakenly think that because of the limited inventory and high demand, they can command large premiums. The truth is that while there will always be properties that set new records and buyers willing to waive appraisal contingencies, most buyers are closely examining the comps with their agent-advisor and nervous about overpaying (thinking there may be a growing housing bubble). An overpriced property can sit on the market for weeks or months longer than it should (and time is money, if you’re the seller).

So. what does this mean for you as a seller and/or buyer?

  1. If you need to sell your home, now is a great time to do so (provided you price and market it correctly). However, be prepared to possibly face challenges buying your next home if you are staying in the region and talk to your lender and agent as to timing and how to best set yourself up for success.

  2. If you’re ready to buy but not in a hurry, run the numbers. Having flexibility as to when you can or need to buy is a blessing and a curse. Having a little bit of urgency is helpful when making a decision but, with limited inventory, you can avoid being forced to make a less-than-ideal choice. As interest rates rise, your lender can help you model out the impact of future increases so you can take the extra cost into account when considering each property and the opportunity cost of waiting.

  3. Always be prepared. As a buyer, if you’re ready to move swiftly, you may come out ahead. With lighter competition, what it takes to go from offer to contract may be less than you think. Consider working with a lender that can underwrite your file prior to placing an offer and be ready to see properties as soon as they hit the market (or to explore off-market opportunities your agent may bring to you).

  4. Don’t decide what’s best for you by what others are doing and/or saying. This is true in life and real estate, isn’t it? I started off this post by reminding us that there are dozens of factors that can come into play when deciding whether to buy or sell. Information and analysis are key, so make sure you have a partner who will ask the tough questions (often more than once) and arm you with insights that will help you make the best decision for you.

Amber Harris is the owner of At Home DC and a licensed real estate agent with Keller Williams Capital Properties working with clients in DC, Maryland and Virginia. 

Gird Your Loins! Getting Your Home Ready for Winter

With the first hard freeze in the DC area expected this weekend, I think we can officially say we're in fall and on our way to winter. In addition to all the fun seasonal decor inside and outside (future blog post, I promise), there are lots of things you should do to prepare your home - whether a condo, townhouse or detached home - for the colder months. 

DC Street in Winter

Here are a few tips (although there are many more) which are hopefully helpful to newer homeowners (congrats!) and veterans alike:

  1. Have your HVAC serviced and replace your filter(s). Many service providers offer maintenance plans, as well, that can save you money on regular maintenance and even put you in a priority position should you have an issue and need service quickly to restore heat.
     
  2. On a windy day, close your windows and inspect them for air leaks. Windows - both the type and the quality of the seal - can make a huge difference in how your home retains heat. Seal any gaps and, if you have been thinking about upgrading to more energy efficient windows or installing storm windows (or doors), you may still have time if you hurry.
     
  3. Install weather stripping on the sides or bottoms of any leaky doors. Just like windows, doors can make a huge difference in your energy efficiency. Weather stripping is an easy and inexpensive project for any homeowner...regardless of experience level.
     
  4. Winterize your water lines. Water and the cold can spell bad news, so make sure any garden hoses are drained and stowed away neatly.  And don't forget to turn off exterior water spigots. Once you've turned off the valve, you'll also want to go outside and turn on the exterior spigot until the water stops flowing.
     
  5. Insulate any exposed pipes. If you have any plumbing that is exposed to the elements, take time to insulate them and minimize the chance that they freeze or burst, leading to dreaded and costly water damage. 
     
  6. Inspect your roof and replace any damaged or missing roof shingles. The rain, ice and snow can be brutal on your roof, so take time now to ensure it's ready to handle what mother nature may dish out.
     
  7. Make sure gutters and downspouts are free of leaves and debris. You may have to hold off on this, since we're still losing leaves, but it's a right of fall!
     
  8. Consider adding a fresh coat of paint or sealer on your deck. The winter is tough on us and our houses, so consider adding a new layer of protection to your beloved deck. 
     
  9. Tend to your fireplace and chimney. If you are lucky enough to have a working fireplace (wood-burning or gas), make sure to have it serviced by a professional so it's ready for winter enjoyment (and Santa, too). 
     
  10. Have your list of trusted service providers (and backups) ready. Even with preventative steps and maintenance, you may still run into an issue. Be prepared by gathering the contact information for HVAC, plumbing, roofing and other services professionals in one place (on paper or digitally). Also make sure to have more than one option for each, in case you need faster service and are dealing with a high-demand time.

Finally, if you need a recommendation for a local professional who can help you with any of your home needs, please don't hesitate to reach out! 

Amber Harris is the owner of At Home DC and a licensed real estate agent with Keller Williams Capital Properties working with clients in DC, Maryland and Virginia. 

Five Fall Outdoor Decorations You'll Love

While it seems summer has flown by, I will fully admit that I am officially ready for fall (it all started with that first 60-degree morning a few weeks ago).

Of course, I love decking out the inside of my house for the season and holidays, but it's just as fun to share your holiday enthusiasm with your neighborhood by adding exterior touches. So I thought I'd compile five fun picks to add some spirit to your home:

In addition to the stores highlighted through the picks above, definitely check out your local HomeGoods, Marshalls or other favorite discount store (their aisles are already filled with fall, Halloween and Thanksgiving options) for little touches to add to your ambiance!

Happy Decorating!

Amber Harris is the owner of At Home DC, an interior decorator and a licensed real estate agent with Keller Williams Capital Properties working with clients in DC, Maryland and Virginia. 

    Down with and Long Live Pumpkin Spice

    As I got myself up this morning and checked my watch for the current weather before taking my dog for a walk, I was happy to see a temp that started with a "5." Cooler temperatures are certainly a sign of fall in DC...much more for me than the much maligned arrival of all things pumpkin spice.

    As much as I am not a fan of PSLs and every food product that now comes laced with cinnamon, nutmeg and other lovely flavors under the pumpkin spice banner, I am a fan of spice-inspired design (I even have a tufted ottoman in a light cinnamon tone).

    So, whether you like or detest PSL season, I've gathered a few design pieces below that I can fully support adding to your home decor this fall and year-round! Any others you would add?